We are revising up our end-2024 and end-2025 forecasts for the 10-year Treasury yield by 25bp, to 4%. This reflects recent changes to our projections for the federal funds rate. Nonetheless, our new forecast for the 10-year yield still implies a small fall from its current level of ~4.3%, as we remain a bit more dovish than investors seem to be on the outlook for US monetary policy.
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