There are 121 low- and middle-income countries feeding into the World Bank’s (WB) debtor reporting systems, but almost half of the $407bn owed to the Washington-based multilateral lender traces back to just 10 of them.
India takes the top spot.The world’s most populous country owed $38.3bn to the WB at the end of 2022, down by almost $1.5bn from a year earlier. India’s outstanding balance is almost double that of the next biggest debtor,Indonesia, with $20.6bn.BangladeshandPakistanfollow with$18.2bn and $18.1bn of outstanding loans, respectively.
The WB has traditionally provided an array of concessional and non-concessional financing packages to low- and middle-income countries that would otherwise struggle to bring in foreign capital through foreign direct investment (FDI) or commercial debt markets.
It does so mostly through two main agencies: the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), which provides loans and development advice to help middle-income countries and creditworthy poorer countries reduce poverty; and the International Development Association (IDA), which addresses poverty reduction by providing interest-free loans and technical assistance to the poorest developing countries.
The geography of the WB’s debt has evolved over the years as low- and middle-income countries move up the development ladder, increase their access to international capital markets and, eventually, become less dependent on development finance. However, given these loans’ long maturity (15 to 20 years for IBRD loans and 35 to 40 years for IDA loans), the list of the bank’s biggest debtors may reflect disbursem*nts that happened decades ago.
India is a case in point. Although it is the WB’s biggest debtor, its existing stock of WB debt jumped from $5.6bn to $37.1bn between 1980 and 2010. It then almost stopped growing, reaching a peak of $39.7bn at the end of 2021 before declining the following year. This reflects the country’s development and increased access to commercial capital markets.
Similarly, Brazil and Mexico,which stood in sixth and seventh place, respectively, in the WB’s top 10 biggest debtors list at the end of 2022, have seen only marginal increases in their overall WB debt since 2010, as they both clinched upper-middle-income status.
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Chinais another good example. The country remains the WB’s fifth-largest debtor. Its WB debt increased by a factor of 24 between 1980 and 2010, when it peaked at $22.1bn. In the following decade, China repaid part of this outstanding debt, which stood at $16.1bn at the end of 2022.
The country has lifted millions from poverty and is expected in the next few years to become a high-income country, which the WB defines as having a gross national income per capita of $13,845 or more (based on 2022 values).
The rest of the top 10 is populated by fast-growing lower-middle-income countries, mostly from Asia, that have experienced greater development finance support from the WB since 2010. Indonesia stands out in second place with an outstanding WB debt of $20.6bn at the end of 2022, an increase of 81% from 2010.
Meanwhile, Bangladesh sits in third place with $18.2bn (+55% from 2010), overtaking its south Asian counterpart Pakistan from the WB’s largest debtor ranking in 2021. Pakistan owed $18.1bn to the WB at the end of 2022, a figure that was $191m less than a year earlier but up by 53% from 2010.
In eighth place was the highest ranked Latin American country, Colombia, which owed $15.1bn to the WB in 2022, up by $1.6bn from a year earlier and more than double the amount it owed in 2010. Vietnam placed ninth with $15.1bn, which was $899m less than a year earlier, but an increase of 95% from 2010.
Nigeria, which placed tenth and is the only African country among the WB’s top debtors, has seen its balance shoot up. At the end of 2022, it owed the WB almost $14bn, up $1.69bn from a year earlier and 277% higher than it was in 2010.
Although they do not make the top 10, there are other countries that stand out for the level of WB debt they took onboard between 2010 and 2022. One of them is Uzbekistan, whose WB debt jumped from just $373m in 2010 to $5.5bn at the end of 2022. That trajectory reflects the end of the country’s international isolation as Shavkat Mirziyoyev rose to power in 2016 with a reformist agenda, following the death of long-time dictator Islam Karimov.
Another country that stands out is Ethiopia, which at the end of 2022 had accumulated $11.2bn worth of WB debt at the end of 2022 — a large increase from $1.8bn in 2010.
From a regional perspective, the WB increased lending the most to sub-Saharan African countries and countries from the Middle East and North Africa between 2010 and 2022. In both regions, its lending increased four times faster than in East Asia and the Pacific, as well as Latin America, and five times faster than South Asia.
This is an updated version of a story originally published on February 14 2023.
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