Who Suffers during Recessions? (2024)

Abstract

In this paper, we examine how business cycles affect labor market outcomes in the United States. We conduct a detailed analysis of how cycles affect outcomes differentially across persons of differing age, education, race, and gender, and we compare the cyclical sensitivity during the Great Recession to that in the early 1980s recession. We present raw tabulations and estimate a state panel data model that leverages variation across U.S. states in the timing and severity of business cycles. We find that the impacts of the Great Recession are not uniform acrossdemographic groups and have been felt most strongly for men, black and Hispanic workers, youth, and low-education workers. These dramatic differences in the cyclicality acrossdemographic groups are remarkably stable across three decades of time and throughout recessionary periods and expansionary periods. For the 2007 recession, these differences arelargely explained by differences in exposure to cycles across industry-occupation employment.

Citation

Hoynes, Hilary, Douglas L. Miller, and Jessamyn Schaller.2012."Who Suffers during Recessions?"Journal of Economic Perspectives, 26 (3): 27-48. DOI: 10.1257/jep.26.3.27

Additional Materials

JEL Classification

  • E24Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital
  • E32Business Fluctuations; Cycles
  • J14Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-labor Market Discrimination
  • J15Economics of Minorities, Races, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
  • J16Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination
Who Suffers during Recessions? (2024)

FAQs

Who suffers during recessions? ›

Our findings are summarized as follows: First, the labor market decline in the Great Recession is both deeper and longer than the early 1980s recession. Second, the impacts of the Great Recession have been felt most strongly for men, black and Hispanic workers, youth, and low-education workers.

Who suffers most in a recession? ›

5 Industries Most Affected by Recession and How They Can Thrive During an Economic Downturn
  • Retail. According to economists, the retail industry is among the industries most affected by recession in 2023. ...
  • Restaurant. ...
  • Travel & Tourism. ...
  • Real Estate. ...
  • Manufacturing.
Nov 29, 2022

Who is affected during a recession? ›

Businesses large and small face declines in sales and profits in a recession. Their efforts to cut costs may include layoffs and cuts in capital spending, marketing, and research. Recessions may curb credit access, slow collections, and spur business bankruptcies.

Who suffered from the Great Recession? ›

The recession was not felt equally around the world; whereas most of the world's developed economies, particularly in North America, South America and Europe, fell into a severe, sustained recession, many more recently developing economies suffered far less impact, particularly China, India and Indonesia, whose ...

Who gets hurt during a recession? ›

Both the employees and firms get hurt by the recession. Employees lose their jobs and are forced to a lower standard of living while the firms undergo abnormal profits.

Who isn't affected by recession? ›

Discount stores often do incredibly well during recessions because their staple products are cheaper.
  • Consumer Staples. ...
  • Grocery Stores and Discount Retailers. ...
  • Alcoholic Beverage Manufacturing. ...
  • Cosmetics. ...
  • Death and Funeral Services.

Who is safest during a recession? ›

  • Accountants.
  • Healthcare Providers.
  • Financial Advisors and Economists.
  • Auto Repair and Maintenance.
  • Home Maintenance Stores.
  • Home Staging Experts.
  • Rental Agents and Property Management Companies.
  • Grocery Stores.

What jobs will be most affected by a recession? ›

Layoffs and hiring freezes are expected to continue in the industry during a possible recession. Workers in transportation & warehousing; construction; and repair, personal & other services are also at higher risk of job loss.

Who are the losers in times of recession? ›

The "losers" are those industries that grew at least 1 percentage point slower than nominal GDP. I define all remaining industries as "average"—that is, those that grew between 1 and –1 percentage point of nominal GDP.

Who is most at risk during recession? ›

The jobs that are the “first to go” when a recession hits are the ones that depend on consumer spending and people having copious disposable income, says Kory Kantenga, a senior economist at LinkedIn. Retail, restaurants, hotels and real estate are some of the businesses often hurt during a recession.

Who is least affected by a recession? ›

Defensive sectors like health care, staples, and utilities could be less vulnerable to recession risk.

What jobs are not recession proof? ›

Some industries feel the impact of an economic downturn more than others. These industries tend to get hit the hardest. Hospitality and tourism - Many cut down on vacations and travel to save money. Entertainment and leisure - People tend to seek inexpensive, at-home forms of entertainment during a recession.

Who suffers more in a recession? ›

We find that the impacts of the Great Recession are not uniform across demographic groups and have been felt most strongly for men, black and Hispanic workers, youth, and low-education workers.

Who got rich during the Great Recession? ›

When the market rebounded, Getty was a rich man, thanks to his action when the economy appeared to be at its worst. The same thing happened to people like Warren Buffett, Jamie Dimon, and Carl Icahn during the Great Recession of 2008. Each zigged when the rest of the world zagged.

How will a recession affect senior citizens? ›

Similarly, if you're receiving other income sources, like Social Security or a pension, it may be easier to minimize your retirement fund withdrawals. On the other hand, if your savings are falling short, a recession could make it harder for your money to last throughout retirement.

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